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Rasmussen: 0bama Presidential Approval Index rating –8
Friday, August 14, 2009  The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 30% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-eight percent (38%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8 (see trends). Forty-four percent (44%) of voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on health care. Forty-one percent (41%) trust the Democrats more. While those numbers are essentially a toss-up, they represent a significant shift in opinion. It’s the first time Republicans have held any advantage on health care in years of tracking the issue. In June, the Democrats held a ten-point advantage on health care. On another topic, voters don’t expect Congress to act on immigration reform over the next year. However, by a 70% to 22% margin, voters say that gaining control of the borders is more important than legalizing the status of undocumented workers already in the country. The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates also available on Twitter. Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That’s up a point from yesterday but down five points from a month ago. Last November, the President won 53% of the vote nationwide. His overall approval has now been below 53% among likely voters every day for a month. Fifty-one percent (51%) now disapprove. For more measures of the President's performance, see Obama By the Numbers and recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.  Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter is feeling the heat of the health care debate. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in an early look at the potential 2010 race. Two months ago, Specter led by double digits. Most Pennsylvania voters oppose the Congressional health care reform effort. Also, Specter’s lead is shrinking in his Democratic Primary match-up with Congressman Joe Sestak. Nationally, support for the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats has fallen to a new low. Tell Congress to REJECT Socialized Health Care -- Send Faxes Here! In the Virginia Governor’s race, Republican Bob McDonnell has opened a nine-point advantage over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds. In New Jersey’s race for Governor, incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine trails by double digits. Republicans maintain a modest lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot. It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the President's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. Other factors are also important to consider when comparing Job Approval ratings from different polling firms.  A Fordham University professor has rated the national pollsters on their record in Election 2008. We also have provided a summary of our results for your review. In recent months, Scott Rasmussen has had three analysis columns published in the Wall Street Journal. The most recent was on health care. Earlier columns were on the President’s approval ratings and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. If you'd like Scott Rasmussen to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth or his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe. Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members. Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Over the past four years, the number of Democrats in the country has increased while the number of Republicans has decreased. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 38.4% Democrats, 32.7% Republicans, and 28.9% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats. Original Article |
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