The announcement last week by Bayh, D-Ind., once widely favored to win re-election, has shaken the 59 members of the Democratic Caucus and threatens to create an “every senator for him- or herself” mentality that could weaken Reid’s ability to lead, political scientists predict. Bayh’s retirement makes it likely that a Republican will win the Indiana seat, undermining Democrats’ efforts to maintain a strong majority, observers say. And it comes at a time when seven other Democratic seats — including Reid’s — are already considered vulnerable. Reid, in a statement Monday, said he believes Bayh’s seat will remain in Democratic hands after the November election. “I think the problem Harry Reid has now is holding his caucus together,” said Eric Herzik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno and a registered Republican. “The irony is that both wings of his caucus could become more strident, with liberals demanding that he move to the left, and more moderate senators saying: ’You’re killing me in my home state. I can’t go with you on this one, Harry.’ Reid is caught in the middle.” There are signs that that is already happening. Reid recently angered moderates by rejecting a bipartisan jobs bill in favor of a Democratic version pushed by liberal members of his caucus, Herzik said. “It’s not really a good situation for Reid,” Herzik said. “If he supports one faction over another, he ends up alienating people.” The Democrats’ election-year infighting will hamper Reid’s efforts to complete an ambitious agenda that includes salvaging some kind of health care reform, spurring job creation and passing an energy bill aimed at reducing global warming. “It’s going to be a lot more difficult for Reid to pass tough things,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “This is going to be a much more rebellious year within his own caucus.” (Remember, all Ameripac Alerts and Articles are also found on Facebook!) But a spokesman for Reid said the senator still expects to be able to deliver. “Nevadans aren’t worried about process or inside-the-beltway political scorekeeping ,” said spokesman Jon Summers. “They want to be able to find good work, stay in their homes, send their kids to college and save for retirement. Sen. Reid is committed to working with his colleagues, Democrats and Republicans, to deliver results for Nevada.” Pundits say Reid’s best hope may be to reach out to Republicans on common-ground issues such as giving tax breaks to businesses for creating jobs or barring insurance companies from rejecting clients with pre-existing medical conditions. Reid and Republican leaders alike should heed voters’ warnings that they are sick of partisan rancor, said Fred Lokken, political science professor at Truckee Meadows Community College and a Republican. Bayh cited that partisanship as the main reason he decided to call it quits. “We have an opportunity here to listen to the American public, who I think have been trying to speak through the recent elections in Massachusetts and elsewhere,” Lokken said. “Members of Congress, Republican or Democrat, need to wake up, roll up their sleeves and work together to help the economy and get things done. That’s what the American people need.” Downplaying the partisanship that Bayh condemned also could help Reid in his own quest for re-election, Lokken said. “I think his image here in Nevada has become kind of partisan and sharp,” he said. “If he moves more toward a compromise mode, it will soften those edges and play more favorably in the state.” Bayh’s decision renewed speculation in Washington that vulnerable Democratic senators, even Reid himself, could follow Bayh out the door. Fueling that are reports that Reid’s two top lieutenants — U.S. Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Dick Durbin, D-Ill. — are jockeying for position to become the new majority leader if something happens to Reid. Both men have been donating substantial amounts of cash to their fellow Democrats’ campaigns in a bid to curry favor. Spokesmen for Schumer and Durbin declined to comment on their donations to other senators. Spokesmen for Reid have said he has no intention of retiring. Washington insiders who question whether Reid will stay don’t understand the Nevadan’s dogged determination or how much he has already survived, Herzik said. “If you’re looking from Washington, D.C., and see Reid’s poll numbers, you may be inclined to dub him ’dead man walking’.” Herzik said. “But he’s run with these kinds of numbers before, and he’s won. I would never write off Harry Reid.” Even if the thought of retirement crossed Reid’s mind, he would brush it away for the sake of his Democratic colleagues and his party’s agenda, said Gary Jacobson, professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego. “It would be a huge blow to his party if he left,” Jacobson said. “It would send a very demoralizing message. It also would destroy his base in the Senate immediately, and he wouldn’t be able to get anything done for the rest of the year. I don’t see that happening.” Original Article |
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