Health Care Reform Tuesday, January 19, 2010 ● Rasmussen

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that just 38% of voters nationwide favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That matches the lowest level of support yet. Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters oppose the plan.

As has been the case throughout the debate, those who feel strongly about the issue are more likely to be opposed. Just 18% of voters Strongly Favor the plan while 44% are Strongly Opposed.

Both support and opposition have changed little since Thanksgiving (see question wording and trends).

Despite the ongoing public opposition, the number who expect Congress to pass the legislation keeps inching up. Now 70% say it’s at least somewhat likely that the plan will pass, the highest level of expectation yet. That figure is up one point from a week ago and up five from two weeks ago.

Just 12% believe passage of the legislation will achieve the stated goal of reducing health care costs. Sixty percent (60%) believe it will lead to higher costs. That is the most pessimistic assessment yet in dozens of tracking polls stretching back to last June.

Fifty-two percent (52%) also think passage of the legislation will lead to a decline in the quality of care.

While most Americans oppose the overall plan, two reforms in it are supported by more than 70% of the public -- creating a new national insurance exchange and requiring health insurance companies to accept applicants with pre-existing conditions. Other parts of the plan are popular as well. Still, polling data released two weeks ago showed that reminding voters of what’s in the plan does not increase support for it.

One problem faced by advocates of the plan is the cost. When it comes to paying for the plan, voters are okay with taxing the rich but strongly reject cuts in Medicare and excise taxes on “Cadillac” health plans provided by employers.

Adding to concerns about paying for the plan is the fact that 78% of voters expect it to cost more than projected. Voters overwhelmingly believe passage of the plan will increase the federal deficit and lead to middle-class tax hikes.

From the beginning of the health care debate, another challenge has been the fact that most Americans have insurance and are generally happy with their coverage. However, 52% of voters fear that they could be forced to change insurance if the health care legislation passes.

Also consistent throughout the health care debate has been the partisan nature of the response. The latest numbers show that 72% of Democrats favor the plan while 83% of Republicans are opposed. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% support the plan, and 60% are opposed.

Most voters favor the ban on abortion coverage for insurance plans that receive federal subsidies, and 47% believe states should have the right to opt out of the federal plan if it passes. On a related topic, 34% favor a single-payer national health insurance system.

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